Melbourne Cup 2021 – a Betting Strategy

John Galvin’s Melbourne Cup Betting Strategy

Wow, the first Tuesday in Melbourne is  upon us. The “day that stops a nation” has a rich history and even those with little interest in racing often get involved in workplace sweepstakes and the like.

With 24 runners and form lines that are hard to read, the Melbourne Cup provides great dividends; it is not hard to get double figure odds on all but the first two or three favourites and who can forget the First four dividend of the 2012 event, paying just a touch under $1 million for a $1 unit. 

John Galvin here below outlines a suggested betting strategy for the Melbourne Cup. It is a strategy that both the “experienced” and “mug” punter can apply to this great event.

The objective is to, as a minimum, get back all or some of the initial outlay and at a maximum “scoop the pool”

Suggested Capital outlay $100. Not a small amount of money for many, but, hey, this is the Melbourne Cup.

First Step

Select Nine Horses from the Twenty Four Starters and label these horses in your order of preference  A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I

Second Step. Place Bets as follows

Win and Place Bets. Horses A and B  $10 to Win and $10 to Place on each. If A and/or B Wins or runs a Place, you will collect. Cost of these bets = $40

Quinella Bets. To win on this bet, you must have the 1st and second runners on your ticket in either finishing order. Select A as an Anchor and B through to I to run 2nd. Select B as an anchor and A though to I to run second.  If either A or B runs first or second and one of the anchors runs first or second you will collect. Bet $1 units.  Cost of these bets = $16.

Trifecta Bet. Here your bet is to be a percentage bet of 25%. This means that if you are successful, you will receive 25% of the declared trifecta Dividend. Select horses ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd and ABCDEFG to run 3rd. Total Units=60, Cost of bet @ 25% = $15

First Four Bet. This is the “biggie”. Again your bet will be a percentage bet; this time for 8%. Select ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd, ABCDEFG to run 3rd and ABCDEFGHI to run fourth.  Total Units=360, Cost of Bet @ 8% = $29.

So, how would you have done in the 2020 event if you had used this betting strategy?

Well, the winner paid $27.20 for the win and $8.10 for the place so a $10 each way bet on him would have returned $353

The quinella paid $97.20 so if you had 1st and 2nd home, you would have collected a further $97.20

The trifecta paid $1805 so with all the right numbers on your ticket a 25% percentage bet would have returned $451.25 for the $15 outlay

The First 4 paid $38,939 so an 8% percentage bet would have returned $3,115  for the $29 outlay if you had the right numbers on your ticket

I trust you get the idea; it is a great way of spreading a reasonable outlay of $100 on the day and, at the very least, having a lot of fun; at best, you may have a five or even six figure collect.

Finally, clients always ask me what my selections and I gently remind them that my last winning selection was Brew way back in 2000, so I am the worst person to ask – I can give a few pointers though as follows

• Most Melbourne Cups are won with horses down in the weights – 57kgs is a lot to carry over 2 miles
• No Mare has won the Cup since Makybe Diva and that was a few Champagnes ago
• Incentivise is all the rage and you could never rule him out but for me there is too much in the history book to suggest he won’t win
• Irish/UK/European pedigrees have dominated in recent years and there is plenty to choose from in this field

Good luck.