Headline News
CUP WEEK is almost upon us – Derby Day this Saturday 4th November
John reports on his “Tiki Tour” of Victorian Racing Venues
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Fortuna has 3 runners in NZ this Friday
Te Aroha – Friday 3rd November
COURT OF APPEAL runs in the Maiden Fillies and Mares 1600m – a Pearl Series event – Race 2 @ 12.18 and will be ridden by Niranjan Parmar, claiming 1kg, from a good barrier. Made her race day debut at Taupo 11th October over 1300m – the trip was always going to be a bit short for her – she got into an awkward spot in the run and was unplaced at the finish but was very strong through the line. A strapping Filly by Eminent out of a Zabeel Mare, she is bred to run a trip and the 1600m on the big roomy Te Aroha track is ideal. Has the ability to run first three here
HAYATE races in the R65 1400 metre event – Race 6 @2.45pm with Michael McNab aboard from Barrier 7. Resuming here off a two month break, she has had one trial to prepare. A 3 win mare, who is looking for more distance this preparation, this is a good starting point for her, she runs well fresh and she should be running home strongly at the finish – can feature
VIVACIOUS debuts in the 3yo Maiden 1200 – Race 7 @ 3.23 with Vinnie Colgan to ride from the ace draw. This beautifully bred daughter of Dundeel has had two winning trials performances to prepare for this and has marked herself as one to watch. Presents as a very strong top three chance here
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Matamata Trackwork
Wednesday 1st November
Court Of Appeal (W Kennedy) galloped over an easy 1200 metres, home in 42.5.
Vivacious (O Bosson) galloped over an easy 1000 metres, last 600 in 42.8.
Hayate (T Melvin) galloped over an easy 1000 metres, final 600 in 40.1.
Singapore Trackwork
Saturday 28th October
PRINCE LONHRO (AWAH)1000/600-39; KING ARTHUR (YUSOFF)1000/600-38.5;
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OTHER NEWS
CUP WEEK is almost upon us – Derby Day this Saturday 4th November with the Golden Eagle at Rosehill providing a superb attraction as well – Go Legarto!!!
John’s Melbourne Cup Betting Strategy
Wow, the first Tuesday in Melbourne is almost upon us. The “day that stops a nation” has a rich history and even those with little interest in racing often get involved in workplace sweepstakes and the like.
With 24 runners and form lines that are hard to read, the Melbourne Cup provides great dividends; it is not hard to get double figure odds on all but the first two or three favourites and who can forget the First four dividend of the 2012 event, paying just a touch under $1 million for a $1 unit.
John here below outlines a suggested betting strategy for the Melbourne Cup. It is a strategy that both the “experienced” and “mug” punter can apply to this great event.
The objective is to, as a minimum, get back all or some of the initial outlay and at a maximum “scoop the pool”
Suggested Capital outlay $100. Not a small amount of money for many, but, hey, this is the Melbourne Cup.
First Step
Select Nine Horses from the Twenty Four Starters and label these horses in your order of preference A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I
Second Step. Place Bets as follows
Win and Place Bets. Horses A and B $10 to Win and $10 to Place on each. If A and/or B Wins or runs a Place, you will collect. Cost of these bets = $40
Quinella Bets. To win on this bet, you must have the 1st and second runners on your ticket in either finishing order. Select A as an Anchor and B through to I to run 2nd. Select B as an anchor and A though to I to run second. If either A or B runs first or second and one of the anchors runs first or second you will collect. Bet $1 units. Cost of these bets = $16.
Trifecta Bet. Here your bet is to be a percentage bet of 25%. This means that if you are successful, you will receive 25% of the declared trifecta Dividend. Select horses ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd and ABCDEFG to run 3rd. Total Units = 60, Cost of bet @ 25% = $15
First Four Bet. This is the “biggie”. Again your bet will be a percentage bet; this time for 8%. Select ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd, ABCDEFG to run 3rd and ABCDEFGHI to run fourth. Total Units = 360, Cost of Bet @ 8% = $29.
So, how would you have done in the 2022 event if you had used this betting strategy?
Well, the winner, Gold Trip, paid $19.40 for the win and $5.80 for the place, so a $10 each way bet on him would have returned $252. The quinella paid a healthy $251.30 so if you had 1st and 2nd home, you would have collected a further $252.30. The trifecta paid $11,184 – with all the right numbers on your ticket a 25% percentage bet would have returned $2796 for the $15 outlay. The First 4 paid $102,784, so an 8% percentage bet would have returned $8,222 for the $29 outlay if you had the right numbers on your ticket
I trust you get the idea; it is a great way of spreading a reasonable outlay of $100 on the day and, at the very least, having a lot of fun; at best, you may have a five or even six figure collect.
Good luck
John reports on his “Tiki Tour” of Victorian Racing Venues
With five Fortuna runners now based at Te Akau Racings Cranbourne stables and with three of them running 27th and 28th of October, John had decided to travel to Melbourne to take the opportunity of inspecting the new stables and attend the three different venues that the Fortuna runners were racing at.
John picks up the story “Traveling to Melbourne on the morning of Thursday 26th and after checking into a Central City Hotel, the rest of the day was spent writing up the Friday Flash and working out the logistics of how to get to three different racing venues on the Friday and Saturday. First stop on Friday morning was a visit to Cranbourne and I plumped to travel there by train. Cranbourne is situated about 40kms south east of Melbourne and the Flinders Street Station was a short walk from my hotel. The trains ran regularly, so I was aboard one about 9.30 for the 50 minute trip to Cranbourne. The experience was very similar to catching the train from Wellington to Trentham, with lots of stops along the way and virtually the whole trip was through pleasant suburban areas. I was struck by just how many homes had solar panels on their roofs – estimate one in three!!!”
“Te Akau Assistant Trainer, Ben Gleeson, picked me up from the Station and it was a short 5 minute drive to the Cranbourne Racecourse and Training Facility. The training set up there is amazing with several different training tracks associated with the course proper, an adjacent sand dune training area and an uphill track also adjacent. Te Akau have recently moved into their purpose built facility, with 20 boxes at this stage and another 40 to be constructed. See HERE and HERE some video footage. Ben Gleeson is all over the new project and clearly is a great addition to the Te Akau Team as they set up in Victoria.
“I inspected all five of the Fortuna runners at the Stable, Fleet Footed who had been there the longest, Rubicon Crossing who had won at Mornington 30th Sept at her Australian debut and the three recent arrivals from NZ, Zedwilldo, Beau Geste and Soprano Supreme. All presented in great order.
“We had two runners that day, firstly Beau Geste at Mornington and secondly, Rubicon Crossing at The Valley at the night meeting – logistically getting to and between these two venues was going to be a bit of a challenge, with Beau Geste racetime at 3.35pm and Rubicon Crossing at 6.15pm, with a 75km distance to travel between the two venues and traffic to contend with. Getting to Mornington was pretty easy, I simply hitched a ride on the horse transporter that was carrying Beau Geste along with his lovely Irish born strapper, Caroline Kirwan and the 35 minute trip from Cranbourne to Mornington was very pleasant with driver Dave, a 30 year veteran with horse transporting, very good company. Incidentally, Ben Gleeson informed me that there are 20 plus race tracks within a two hour drive of the Cranbourne facility.
“Beau Geste, now a 9 year old, was making his Aus debut – a proven performer here in NZ with 6 career wins on the flat and over the jumps, he is being set for a jumping career in Victoria in 2024, but firstly we are trying to qualify him for the iconic Jericho Cup, run over 3 miles on Sunday 3rd December – and his debut Aus run was to be in a BM 64 3000m highweight with Aaron Kuru to ride. He ran a bold race for 5th after being handy in the run, just finding the track a little bit firm for him when they sprinted for home, but was only getting warm at the finish – the further ho goes, the better he will be.
“The raceday office had been kind enough to order a taxi for me to take me from Mornington to the Valley and my Pakistani driver and I had a great conversation about the cricket World Cup during the 80 minute trip to the Valley – I arrived with almost an hour to spare before Rubicon Crossing’s race. Picking up my Owners tickets at the gate I caught up with syndicate Members Phil and Gilda Grigg, who had traveled from NZ and Susan Brumby, accompanied by her husband, David, who live in Victoria. Heading to the mounting yard, we watched Cube parading in the hands os strapper, Hailey Morton – rider Opie Bosson emerged from the jockeys room sporting the Fortuna Silks. A brief discussion with Ben and Opie re tactics (she had drawn the outside, so probably we would need to go back) took place and then it was racetime. As anticipated, there was too much speed inside “Cube” over the 1000m trip, so she went back, traveled three wide with cover, was four wide on the turn and in the end finished 5th, beaten just a bit over 2 lengths, a solid effort in what was a good field and from the difficult draw.
“Saturday dawned and the Fortuna 3yo Fleet Footed, was to have his race day debut at Yarra Valley, about an hour’s drive North East of Melbourne. Uber came to the party for this trip – Fleet Footed was in the first race over 1000m – Ross Herdman, a long standing Fortuna client has shares in him and lives nearby on the Mornington Peninsula, so we met up on course. Unfortunately for Fleet Footed (who went out favourite), the track at a Soft 5, was not to his liking and he faded to finish 7th – he is definitely a firm tracker
“Ross and I then drove to Moonee Valley (I had managed to score a couple of General Entry tickets courtesy of Karyn Fenton – Ellis – thank you Karyn) and we were there by Race 4, in time to see the Roger James/Robert Wellwood trained Prowess take out the Group 2 Crystal Mile, then watched in awe as Imperatriz just toyed with the field in the Group One Manikato. In the Cox Plate, I had plumped for the iron horse Alligator Blood and with 30m to go I was headed for the tote only to see him get run down in the last stride by Romantic Warrior!!!
“Ross was great company – he loves following the horses and had seemingly encyclopedic knowledge of almost every runner on the day. Moonee Valley on Cox Plate day was an amazing experience – every nook and cranny seemed to be occupied and our General Admission tickets did not provide stand access – thank heaven for the huge infield screen.
To summarise, there is no doubt in my mind that the Te Akau move to set up a permanent base in Victoria is an inspired move. Historically, Te Akau (and Fortuna) have campaigned horses in Australia, but generally only the very best ones, given the logistics and expense involved with “hit and run” campaigning. The permanent base allows for a much bigger team to be raced there – they cannot all be Champions but the depth and breadth of Victorian Racing, where they race seven days a week, means that every runner can find its own level “
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SHARES FOR SALE
We have just a few shares left in three Two Year Olds – one Colt and two Fillies – all three with genuine staying credentials
Here is the summary below
DAIDALOS – the 2yo Colt by Mastercraftsman out of Trikala (by High Chapparal)
- Being prepared by Harry Eustace at Newmarket in the UK
- Set to have his first race day start end of November/early December
- Harry will attempt to qualify him for the UK/Irish/French Guineas/Derbies events May/June 2024
- Sept/Oct 2024, he will travel out to Australia to join Mark Walker’s team at Cranbourne where he will be targeted at the Staying events in Victoria
- A genuine staying type physically with Pedigree to match
Click HERE to see “Frankie” working on the Newmarket Heath a few days ago
Shares available down to 1% – $5880 for 5%, $2940 for 2.5% and $1176 for 1% with ongoing costs from 1 December @ $44 per month for each 1%
Click HERE to read full details about him on the Fortuna website
Daidalos – 2yo Colt by Mastercraftsman
QUEEN CONSORT – the 2yo Filly by Eminent out of Queen Boudicca
- In full work at Matamata – she heads to the jumpouts 9th November and then will trial 28th November
- Lovely physical type with looks to die for – click HERE to see her at Monday trot ups this week
- Possesses a great pedigree page being by Eminent (a son of the mighty Frankel) and a half sister to the Group One 1000 Guineas (Caulfield) winner, Aloysia
- Looks like a genuine staying type in the making but forward enough to suggest we may see her at the races as an Autumn 2yo
Shares available down to 1% – $8260 for 5%, $4130 for 2.5% and $1652 for 1% with ongoing costs from 1 December @ $44 per month for each 1%
Click HERE to read full details about her on the Fortuna website
QUEEN CONSORT – the 2yo Filly by Eminent out of Queen Boudicca
STAR SHADOW – the 2yo Filly by Reliable Man out of Scene Queen (by Redoutes Choice)
- In full work at Matamata – she heads to the jumpouts 9th November and then will trial 28th November
- Lovely strong grey Filly – click HERE to see her at Monday trot ups this week
- Possesses a lovely staying type pedigree
- Looks like a genuine staying type in the making but forward enough to suggest we may see her at the races as an Autumn 2yo
Shares available down to 1% – $5,760 for for 5%, $2,880 for 2.5% and $1152 for 1% with ongoing costs from 1 December @ $44 per month for each 1%
Click HERE to read full details about her on the Fortuna website
STAR SHADOW – the 2yo Filly by Reliable Man out of Scene Queen
HOW TO ORDER SHARES
Shares can be ordered direct from the website page for each horse at the links above – note that you may be eligible for a “retired horse” or other discounts – check with John by email or call/text 021 921 460 if unsure
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Guest Selector – Gary Williams
Gary pulled a few rabbits out of the hat last week with Gee Cee and Impendabelle both winning at Pukekohe at good odds and Romantic Warrior getting the job done in the last stride in the Cox Plate – other selections ran into the placings – here is what he says this week
Well John and Team, I very nearly was reverting to my Book of Excuses to explain some average runs but the rub of the green came our way last week, timely as we head into an exciting Spring program.
On local front I am looking to a couple of fellow ‘Senior Citizens’ for some eachway value.
Race 5 @ Tauranga Tightlign – $9/$3 and Race7 Roger That – $16 /$5 should give a great sight.
Down at Trentham race 5 Soldier Boy $10/$3 drops back in distance but certainly one to follow from now on.
Derby Day in Melbourne and I suspect James McDonald in for a big week…..It should start with Riff Rocket $2.70 in Derby and among others race 9 Tamerlane $4 /$2
Sydney has the Golden Eagle and gotta stay loyal with Legarto $8/$3 to run well for NZ. I also have a bias toward her rival Kovalica $11 /$3 as I was in the syndicate that raced her mum. Sure to storm home and possibly the quinella.One to follow over more ground.
Tuesday is Melbourne Cup day and look forward to the big pools and dividends especially for Trifectas and First 4’s.
Pukekohe fields not out but a little birdie tells me Canheroc lining up over 2400m…a promising stayer, max your bet then double it !
In the Cup I’ve been a Gold Trip fan for weeks now ….. James McD rides ….sure to go close tho class and track conditions will mean Without A Doubt and the hurdler Vauban are both strong contenders. All at the top of weights which is not ideal and I been looking at lightweight and roughie Ashrun to boost exotics !
Enjoy the best week of racing in the year
Regards,
Gary Williams
