Fortuna has two runners over the weekend, one in Victoria, one in NZ
Moe – Friday
ZEDWILLDO contests the Maiden 1600m event – race one at 12.40pm Aus time (2.40pm NZT) with Paul Gatt to ride from barrier 10. Encouraging resuming run last time this trip, but is bred to stay all day and needs to get over more ground – this race is a stepping stone to that. TAB says “No easier this time and is likely to struggle” – showing odds of $71/$11
Otaki – Saturday
RAGAMUFFIN races in the R75 1400m – Race 6 @ 2.57pm with Ashvin Goindasamy to ride – capable galloper who is resuming after a break following his last start on a really heavy track at New Plymouth 17th August – won a jumout at Hawera last week and a trial at Foxton on Tuesday, so is primed for this but has a very wide draw to negotiate over the 1400m trip. Needs luck, but if he gets it, can feature in the finish at big odds. TAB says “Resumes, trial winner recently, has won on both wet and dry grouns” – showing odds of $16/$4.50
OTHER NEWS
Derby Day (November 2nd) awaits with two Fortuna 3yo Fillies BELLATRIX STAR and OUR PARAMOUR aimed at Group Races on the Day
To say that there is a sense of excitement building in the Fortuna camp at the moment would be somewhat of an understatement – as I said to my good friend David Ellis during the week, when congratulating him on selecting these two lovely Fillies for us “David, if you’d said to me three or four months ago that we were going to have two runners on one of the most prestigious days in Australia racing competing in two different group races, I would’ve had you committed” – but yes it is happening and congratulations to all of our owners who have shares in either of these Fillies – in fact many have got cross ownership with shares in both – as always our syndicates are big and there are 69 individual members in Bellatrix Star with members from Kerikeri to Cromwell and one Australian member and in Our Paramour we have 55 members from Kaukapakapa to Wyndham with two from Australia. We have big crews attending Flemington on the day for both horses, 40 for Bellatrix Star and 24 for Our Paramour – how good is that!!!
For the record Bellatrix Star will be contesting the Group One Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) for A$2 million and Our Paramour will be running in the Group Two Wakeful Stakes over 2000m for A$300,000 – and depending on her performance in that race and how she comes through it, she is a good chance to back up in the Group One VRC Oaks 5 days later for A$1m.
Finally, I add a note here from the Australian Racing writer and analyst, Nic Ashman commenting on her run in the Schillaci
“Speaking of Bellatrix Star, the filly is really progressing well. Off a dawdling tempo, she’s recorded a scintillating 21.68s between the 600 metres and 200 metres to beat the class benchmark by just over 1l. That 400-metre dash she showed was by far the quickest of the day. She also clocked the best last 800 metres and 600 metres of the meeting. She should be close to favourite for the Coolmore Stud S. but is still double figures”
As I write this, she is showing $11/$3.50 NZ TAB Futures Odds
Te Akau Cranbourne Stable’s outstanding results for the new season to date
Here in New Zealand the training team of Mark Walker/Sam Bergeson have got off to their usual flying start, leading the NZ Trainer’s Premiership, recording 33 winners from 150 starts in the season to date, at the impressive strike rate of 4.55 – however across the Tasman Mark Walker is setting a hot pace with 9 winners from 27 starts at a strike rate of 3.0!!! – Remarkably, according to a website that tracks a return on investment (ROI) from a betting perspective for individual trainers, Mark is running at 176%, meaning that if you had put $10 to win on each of Mark’s 27 runners you would now have $475 for your $270 outlay!!!
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Guest Selector – Des Coppins
Here is what Des has to say this week and as he advised last week he includes a couple of tips from the two big races in Australia this week, The Everest and The Caulfield Cup
Greetings John and Fortuna friends.
What a week for your team with 3 emphatic victories in NZ and Australia! Heartiest congratulations.
Can I just say that feedback in racing ownership from the stable to the client is so vitally important in this day and age and I know a few people who have shares in Fortuna runners who all say the same thing;“communication is the key“ and win, lose or draw Fortuna shareholders are treated with total respect in this domain whether they hold a decent chunk of an ownership or just one percent! That’s so refreshing to hear.
THE EVEREST and CAULFIELD CUP
What a great weekend of racing coming up and while we have some decent form to look forward to at Ellerslie and Otaki the focus for most of us will centre on The Everest and the Caulfield Cup.
For what it’s worth I enjoy taking on the exotics for both the Caulfield Cup and the Everest over the years because the pools are so healthy, especially with the first 4’s and quinellas. I’ll be building a case for Land Legend to become the 5th horse to go back to back from the Metropolitan in Randwick to the Caulfield Cup and give Chris Waller, who has 3 runners in the Cup, his 3rd Caulfield Cup in 5 years.
While I’d love to see the Kiwi ownership with I Wish I Win or Joliestar take the spoils in The Everest I’ve an inkling for the three year old, Traffic Warden. The way I read it, either of the Gai Waterhouse – Adrian Bott pair of Storm Boy or Lady Camelot will lead. If they don’t there’s great back up in the on pace arena with I Am Me and Growing Empire. Traffic Warden has hit the ground running this season and I thought he was one of the unlucky two year olds last season in both the Golden Slipper when 4th and the Sires Produce when 2nd. With an ounce of luck he could have won one or the other or both! He’s drawn to get a cosy trip behind the pace and with the lighter weight he could do a Yes Yes Yes or Giga Kick as an Everest winning three year old.
Close to home I’m banking on the unlucky runner at Tauranga last time, Val Di Zoldo to get a well deserved win in race 8 at Ellerslie and I’ll be very keen on Boomtown Boy to win race 5 at Otaki. Again, both horses are worth following this month and the next as they are relatively early in spring preparations and can only get better as the season extends.
Good punting!
Des
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