John Galvin’s Melbourne Cup Betting Strategy
Wow, the first Tuesday in Melbourne is almost upon us. The “day that stops a nation” has a rich history and even those with little interest in racing often get involved in workplace sweepstakes and the like.
With 24 runners and form lines that are hard to read, the Melbourne Cup provides great dividends; it is not hard to get double figure odds on all but the first two or three favourites and who can forget the First four dividend of the 2012 event, paying just a touch under $1 million for a $1 unit.
John Galvin here below outlines a suggested betting strategy for the Melbourne Cup. It is a strategy that both the “experienced” and “mug” punter can apply to this great event.
The objective is to, as a minimum, get back all or some of the initial outlay and at a maximum “scoop the pool”.
Suggested Capital outlay $100. Not a small amount of money for many, but, hey, this is the Melbourne Cup.
First Step
Select Nine Horses from the Twenty Four Starters and label these horses in your order of preference A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I
Second Step.Place Bets as follows
Win and Place Bets. Horses A and B $10 to Win and $10 to Place on each. If A and/or B Wins or runs a Place, you will collect. Cost of these bets = $40
Quinella Bets. To win on this bet, you must have the 1st and second runners on your ticket in either finishing order. Select A as an Anchor and B through to I to run 2nd. Select B as an anchor and A though to I to run second. If either A or B runs first or second and one of the anchors runs first or second you will collect. Bet $1 Units. Cost of these bets = $16.
Trifecta Bet. Here your bet is to be a percentage bet of 25%. This means that if you are successful, you will receive 25% of the declared trifecta Dividend. Select horses ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd and ABCDEFG to run 3rd. Total Units=60, Cost of bet @ 25% = $15
First Four Bet. This is the “biggie”. Again your bet will be a percentage bet; this time for 8%. Select ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd, ABCDEFG to run 3rd and ABCDEFGHI to run fourth. Total Units=360, Cost of Bet @ 8% = $29.
So , how would you have done in the 2012 event if you had used this betting strategy and had the right numbers on your ticket?
Well, the winner paid $22.50 for the win and $7.40 for the place so a $10 each way bet on him would have returned $299
The quinella paid $506.90 so if you had 1st and 2nd home, you would have collected a further $506.90
The trifecta paid $41,064 so with all the right numbers on your ticket a 25% percentage bet would have returned $10,266
The First 4 paid a whopping $969,206 so an 8% percentage bet would have returned $77,522
I trust you get the idea; it is a great way of spreading a reasonable outlay of $100 on the day and, at the very least, having a lot of fun; at best, you may have a five or even six figure collect.
Good luck and if you are unsure about how to place these bets, TAB staff at any TAB agency will be very helpful.
John Galvin’s preliminary nine selections, in no particular order, are below. Note the best I did last year was 4th, so you should certainly not rely on my tips; follow your own instincts.
John’s nine selections are :
Sea Moon, Brown Panther, Fiorante, Dandino, Seville, Fawkner, Mount Athos, Voleuse de Coeurs, Ruscello
Three FORTUNA runners Singapore this weekend
Friday night sees 3yo OUR RIVER DANCER wear blinkers for the first time in a Restricted Maiden event over 1200 metres on the Polytrack. OUR RIVER DANCER will be ridden by Te Akau Racing Apprentice Willy Tan who will claim 3kgs.
Race 5 sees the talented, but injury prone, JETSET MAN tackle the 1600 metre trip for the first time in a Kranji Stakes D event. He will be ridden by Shafiq Rusof.
On Sunday, 4yo READY FORTUNE contests a Maiden event over 1200 metres. READY FORTUNE has run second four times in Singapore so is due some luck. He will be ridden by Stable Apprentice Willy Tan.
DARCI’S DREAM to debut Ellerslie 26th October
Smart 2yo DARCI’S DREAM ( Darci Brahma-Sweet Dreams Baby) takes the first steps toward making her owners’ dreams come true, when she makes her race day debut over 880 metres at Ellerslie on Saturday. A smart trials winner at Te Teko in August, ” Baby” as she is nicknamed, has continued to impress trainer Jason Bridgman with her natural speed and ability since. ” We certainly have the Karaka Million in our sights for her, so this debut run at Ellerslie is very much a first step toward that target,” he says.
Fortuna Director, John Galvin, acquired DARCI’S DREAM at Karaka 2013 Select Sale and is raced by the Fortuna Darci’s Dream Syndicate, an ownership group of 30 people. She will be ridden on Saturday by Te Akau Racing’s Apprentice, Michael Dee, who claims 3kgs.
KING SAVINSKY contests Canterbury Stakes at Riccarton 26th October
Trainer Jason Bridgman and Fortuna Director John Galvin, didn’t have to agonise too much about throwing 3yo Gelding, KING SAVINSKY ( Savabeel-Lynisky) into the deep end by entering him into the Hollaway Canterbury Stakes ( Listed) at Riccarton this weekend. While still a Maidener, KING SAVINSKY has run two strong seconds in his last two runs at Ruakaka and Taupo, with a bit of bad luck on both occasions. ” Yes, it is a big step up in class for the horse,” says John Galvin,” but he has shown us enough both in his work and on race day to be given the opportunity at this level. It is certainly an excellent chance for him to demonstrate that he is up to the class.”
A big, strong, powerful type standing at 16.3 hands, KING SAVINSKY does look more of a 2000 metre plus type, but will be well suited by the big roomy Riccarton track on Saturday.
Selected for Fortuna by David Ellis at Karaka 2012 Select Sale, KING SAVINSKY is raced by an ownership group consisting of 35 people. He will be ridden by Jillian Morris.
LORD ROBERTO and MANNY PACUIAO start Singapore Sunday 20th
Two FORTUNA runners, who have enjoyed winning success in Singapore in recent weeks, face the starter again this coming Sunday and both horses have good opportunities to extend their success.
First away is the well performed LORD ROBERTO, who has won three time in Singapore already. He finished a very creditable 4th over 1600 metres last time after previously winning at 1700 metres. This week, he steps up to the more suitable 1800 metre distance in a Class 4 event ( Race 3 6.45pm NZ time) on the Polytrack. 2012/13 season NZ Champion jockey, Lisa Allpress, who is really making her mark in Singapore, takes the mount again.
In race 10 at 10.30pm NZ time, MANNY PACUIAO steps out in a Kranji Stakes D race over 1200 metres. A last to first winner in August, MANNY PACUIAO has not enjoyed a lot of luck in his starts since, but this time has the Ace barrier draw and the world class rider, Corey Brown, in the saddle.
FORTUNA NZ Stable has five runners in Singapore this weekend.
A big weekend ahead for the FORTUNA NZ Racing team with three runners Friday night in Singapore and two more on Sunday.
First off the block on Friday night in Race 2 is 3yo OUR RIVER DANCER in a Restricted Maiden event over 1200 metres. HUNTER as he is nicknamed is still chasing his first win in Singapore and does have a difficult barrier draw to contend with. Will be ridden by Stable Apprentice Shafiq Rusof.
Race 3 sees last start winner LORD ROBERTO backing up after a dominant display last week. To be ridden again by Lisa Allpress this lovely big 5yo will contest a Class 4 event over 1600 metres. Has a tricky draw to contend with but does represent a big threat in this race.
Finally in Race 6, the in form MANNY PACUIAO has drawn beautifully in gate 3 for this Class 4 1200 metre event and will be ridden my the “Magic Man” Singapore Champion jockey, Joao Moreira. He is bound to be very competitive in this race.
Sunday evening, NZ time sees 4yo READY FORTUNE contest a Kranji D Stakes race over 14oo metres on the Turf track. Probably a tad short of his ideal distance, but has drawn nicely and will be storming home at the finish in the hands of Shafiq Rusof.
Finally, in Race 12, JETSET MAN steps up to a 1400 metre trip on the Turf track. Drawn out wide but carries a featherweight of 50.5kgs in this Class 4 event. Stable Apprentice Willy Tan takes the mount claiming 3kgs.
LORD ROBERTO wins for 3rd time in Singapore
Story courtesy of Craig Brennan and Singapore Turf Club.
A step up in distance and a return to the Polytrack paved the way to victory for Lord Roberto in the $55,000 Class 4 Stakes over 1700m on the Polytrack on Friday night.
Ridden by Lisa Allpress, Lord Roberto scored by two-and-a-quarter lengths over Casino King (Greg Cheyne) with Daad’s The Way (Corey Brown) three-and-three-quarter lengths back in third place.
Allpress had Lord Roberto tracking the speed set by Casino King (Greg Cheyne) from the outset and was content to allow the leader to control the pace.
In-form jockey Lisa Allpress steers Lord Roberto to a smart win in Race 3 on Friday night.
Turning for home Casino King threw a scare into those chasing as he snuck a two length lead on the chasing pack, but Allpress got to work on Lord Roberto who began to chase gamely, getting on terms with the leader at the 150m mark and proving too strong in the run home.
Daad’s The Way was with the tailenders early but ran on gamely to claim third spot on the line.
Trainer Mark Walker said Lord Roberto was the biggest horse in his stable and went to the post on Friday night weighing 604kg and being a New Zealander, Walker used a rugby analogy in describing Lord Roberto.
“He’s a massive horse,” said Walker. “If he was an ‘All Black’ (the New Zealand national Rugby team) and he stood on you, you’d know all about it.
“He weighs in at over 600kg and is by far the biggest horse we have in the stable.
“He had a few lead-up runs leading into tonight’s race and appreciated getting onto the Polytrack and stepping up in distance.
“This is his favourite trip and he relished it tonight.”
After a double last Sunday, Allpress has now ridden five winners since kicking off her latest Singapore campaign at the start of September.
She described Lord Roberto as “quite a nice horse” and added that he appreciated getting out to Friday night’s journey.
“He’s a big horse but he’s quite a nice horse all-the-same,” said Allpress. “He’s still growing into himself and has just needed a bit of time.
“I’ve been galloping him and he’s been going OK and it’s good to get a win on him tonight.”
After having three starts in New Zealand for one minor placing, Lord Roberto has since had 17 starts in Singapore, registering three wins and four minor placings.
His victories and placings have all come on the Polytrack in nine starts while from his eight turf track starts he has yet to fill a place.
A five-year-old Australian-bred by Encosta De Lago from Prized Glory, Lord Roberto took his prizemoney to around $140,000 for Fortuna NZ Racing Stable with Friday night’s success.
LORD ROBERTO and JETSET MAN start for Fortuna NZ Stable Singapore Friday 27th Sept
LORD ROBERTO, the 5yo son of Encosta De Lago-Prized Glory, already a two time winner in Singapore steps up to 1700 metres for his 3rd run back from a spell Friday night. His first two resuming runs had merit but at 1200 metres and 1400 metres respectively, were too short for him, so he will appreciate the extra distance. He will be ridden by the 2013 Champion NZ Jockey, but now Singapore based, Lisa Allpress in race 3 11.20pm NZ time.
In Race 9 2.20am NZ time, Saturday morning., JETSET MAN ( Golan-Jetset Doll) is second run back from a spell over 1200 metres in a Class 4 event. He will also be ridden by Lisa Allpress, whose skills will be tested as he has drawn wide at the barrier and will need some luck in the running.
SIR DARCI wins at second start Gisborne
Promising 3yo Gelding SIR DARCI ( Darci Brahma-Dominant) franked his trial form with a solid 2 length win in a Maiden 1350 metre event at Gisborne today. Ridden beautifully by Matt Cameron, SIR DARCI raced in behind the leaders, pulled out to challenge as they turned and in the end was too powerful for his opposition.
SIR DARCI is trained by Te Akau Racing’s Jason Bridgman and was selected on behalf of Fortuna at the 2012 Karaka Premier Sale by David Ellis from the draft of the Oaks Stud. He is raced by the Fortuna Sir Darci Syndicate, a grouping of 34 individuals.
Three FORTUNA runners this Sunday 22nd, one in Gisborne, two in Singapore
A busy Sunday of racing for the FORTUNA team with runners in NZ and Singapore.
First away is the promising 3yo Gelding SIR DARCI ( Darci Brahma-Dominant). SIR DARCI made his race day debut at Taupo two weeks ago but was badly hampered by an errant runner as they turned for home and had to be severely restrained. He took no harm from the incident, has trained on nicely since and gets a fresh opportunity to show his ability in a Maiden 1350 metre event ( Race 6 @ 3.05), Mathew Cameron to ride.
Later in the day 5yo VON SNITZEL races in Singapore in a Novice Grade event ( Race 3 @5.45pm NZ time) over 1000 metres; stable apprentice Jimmy Kek takes 4kgs off his back; and then the improving LUCKY GUY, who ran a nice 2nd placing last time out, gets his chance ( Race 7 @ 7.50pm) in an Initiation Grade event over 1100 metres. Shafiq Rusof to ride claiming 2kgs.