Friday Flash – 28th October 2022

New Singapore Opportunity – the Charm Spirit – Thurlow 2yo – “Rhett”

Fortuna Annual Owners Day – Matamata Racecourse – Sunday 4^th December

Melbourne Cup Betting Strategy

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Fortuna has three runners this weekend, one in NZ and two in Singapore
 
New Zealand  – Saturday 29th

MOHAWK BRAVE runs at Matamata in the R75 1200m – Race 6 @ 2.53pm and will be ridden by Stable Apprentice Niranjan Parmar, claiming 3kgs, from an outside barrier draw. The winner of three of his first four career races as a 3yo, Mohawk has run 4^th at Taupo in his resuming run in the new season and then failed at Ruakaka in September. He gets his chance to atone here. Will need a lot of luck to feature here from his wide draw but is capable of running in the money if back to his best.

KERMAJACK contests the Class 4 1600m Turf event – Race 10 @9.30 NZ time (4.30 Singapore time) and will be ridden by Louis Beuzelin from a good barrier draw. A natural staying type, Kermajack had had one run over 1400m since resuming after recovering from wind surgery. He has been stepped up straight to 1600m this week and has blinkers applied. The longer trip will suit but is probably going to need this run before showing his best

DECEPTION runs in the Class 4 1200 Turf – Race 11 @ 10pm NZ time (5pm Singapore time) and will be ridden by Simon Kok, claiming 1kg from the Ace barrier draw. A bold 2^nd last start when contesting a Novice event, he carries just 51 kgs here and will get a soft run in behind the speed from his nice draw. Meets a tidy field here but is primed and ready to run another good race here and represents a top three chance

Fortuna Track work – Matamata
 
Tuesday  25^th October

Angels Wings (M Roustoby) worked over 1000 metres in 1.03.4, home in 36.78.

Thursday  27^th October

Mohawk Brave (B King) worked over an easy 1000 metres in 1.10.21, home in 39.17.

Fortuna Track work – Singapore

Saturday  22nd October

Entertainer (Yusoff) – 1000/600 39; King Arthur (Yusoff) – 1000/600 37.3;

Tuesday  25th^th October

Deception (Simon Kok) – 800/600 40.5;

Other News

Fortuna secures a Charm Spirit Colt for Singapore Racing at the Inglis R2R Sale in Sydney

2yo Colt by Charm Spirit out of Thurlow

By Charm Spirit, who is having an exceptional run in Singapore this season and out of the dual Stakes winner, Thurlow (by Sebring), “Rhett” as we have nicknamed him, is a handsome physical type standing at 16 hands and tipping the scales at just over 500 kgs – he has a great pedigree page (see below) and you can view his pre sale Breeze Up gallopHERE and his parade HERE

10% share = $15,200, 5% share = $7,600, 2.5% share = $3,800 and 1% share = $1,520. This includes Purchase price, Promoters Fees, Vetting costs, Transport to Singapore, Insurance paid to 31 Jan 2024 and working capital of just under $14k – And then $40 per month per each 1% share from 1 Jan 2023

Contact John by return email or call/text 021 921 460 for more information. Or Click HERE to order a share direct off the Fortuna website

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Fortuna Annual Owners Day – Matamata Race Course – Sunday 4^th December

Yes, it is that time of the year again and after two Covid affected years with attendances affected due to lockdowns, the powers that be have been kind enough to give us our freedoms back!!! and we are looking forward to hosting our usual 100 plus attendees.
Venue – Epsom Lounge – Matamata Race course
Date – Sunday 4^th December
Time – 1pm to 4pm
Format – Meet and Greet, light refreshments, Review of 2022 Calendar Year, Parade of all of the Fortuna Matamata based horses

Special Guest – Mark Walker

John’s Melbourne Cup Betting Strategy

Wow, the first Tuesday in Melbourne is upon us. The “day that stops a nation” has a rich history and even those with little interest in racing often get involved in workplace sweepstakes and the like.

With 24 runners and form lines that are hard to read, the Melbourne Cup provides great dividends; it is not hard to get double figure odds on all but the first two or three favourites and who can forget the First four dividend of the 2012 event, paying just a touch under $1 million for a $1 unit.

John Galvin here below outlines a suggested betting strategy for the Melbourne Cup. It is a strategy that both the “experienced” and “mug” punter can apply to this great event.

The objective is to, as a minimum, get back all or some of the initial outlay and at a maximum “scoop the pool” – Suggested Capital outlay $100. Not a small amount of money for many, but, hey, this is the Melbourne Cup.

First Step
Select Nine Horses from the Twenty Four Starters and label these horses in your order of preference  A,B,C,D,E,F,G,H,I

Second Step. Place Bets as follows
Win and Place Bets. Horses A and B  $10 to Win and $10 to Place on each. If A and/or B Wins or runs a Place, you will collect. Cost of these bets = $40

Quinella Bets. To win on this bet, you must have the 1st and second runners on your ticket in either finishing order. Select A as an Anchor and B through to I to run 2nd. Select B as an anchor and A though to I to run second.  If either A or B runs first or second and one of the anchors runs first or second you will collect. Bet $1 units.  Cost of these bets = $16.

Trifecta Bet. Here your bet is to be a percentage bet of 25%. This means that if you are successful, you will receive 25% of the declared trifecta Dividend. Select horses ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd and ABCDEFG to run 3rd. Total Units=60, Cost of bet @ 25% = $15

First Four Bet. This is the “biggie”. Again your bet will be a percentage bet; this time for 8%. Select ABC to run 1st, ABCDE to run 2nd, ABCDEFG to run 3rd and ABCDEFGHI to run fourth.  Total Units=360, Cost of Bet @ 8% = $29.

So, how would you have done in the 2021 event if you had used this betting strategy? Notable that the first three home last year were “in” the market, so the 2021 divvies were modest by comparison with previous years

Well, the winner, Verry Elleegant, paid $16.50 for the win and $4.50 for the place so a $10 each way bet on her would have returned 210

The quinella paid $21.80 so if you had 1st and 2nd home, you would have collected a further $21.80

The trifecta paid $386 so with all the right numbers on your ticket a 25% percentage bet would have returned $96.50 for the $15 outlay

The First 4 paid $5,413 so an 8% percentage bet would have returned $433 for the $29 outlay if you had the right numbers on your ticket

I trust you get the idea; it is a great way of spreading a reasonable outlay of $100 on the day and, at the very least, having a bit of fun; at best, you may have a five or even six figure collect.

Guest Selector – Des Coppins

Good morning John and Team

I’ve been in Melbourne since with the majority of the tour since Wednesday and it’s all been rain, rain and more rain!

Despite that I’m looking forward to the wonderful racing that’s in store over the next week.
Before I pass you my Derby Day pick of the day it’s probably fair to say that last week’s tip, Duke of Plumpton, who ran at Trentham on Sunday, had next up written all over him.
He settled in the rear in a strung out field over 1400m and would have been standing up the leaders 15-20 lengths on the turn but he hit the line solidly without being really extended to record the fastest all over sectionals in 6th place.

Paste him in your hat. I spoke with Kevin Myers after the race and he’s setting him for a mile at Riccarton over Cup week.

Tomorrow with the expected wet track at Flemington I’m going for a price with Grand Impact in the Coolmore. He’s unbeaten and won the Blue Sapphire in good style at Caulfield. All three of his wins have been on rain affected tracks so he won’t be worried about the expected damp conditions at Flemington up the straight six. He’s tacking the straight course for the first time but my spies told me that he had a very soft jump out there last Friday to familiarise himself. At $9 and $3, one unit over two makes sense.

Good punting both in NZ and in Australia.

P.s. For the Melbourne Cup on Tuesday I haven’t completely made up my mind but I have a strong feeling for JMac’s ride, Loft, the German import. German runners have the best strike rate this century in the race. In fact there may be another who competed but only two German horses come to mind who have run in the Cup, the winners, Protectionist (2014) and Almandin (2016).

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